Will FK Buxoro win on 2026-10-30?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 50¢ · $181 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$181.12
-$15.14
25.8¢ → 50¢
+94% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Yesavg 25.7¢ | $103.34 | $100.5 | -$12.89 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $64.72 | $60.18 | -$2.62 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 75¢ | $15 | $15 | -$0 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $1.25 | $3.6 | +$2.35 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 75.8¢ | $3.83 | $1.84 | -$1.98 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
Invested
$103.34
Value
$100.5
PnL
-$12.89
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$64.72
Value
$60.18
PnL
-$2.62
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
RN1<$100Invested
$15
Value
$15
PnL
-$0
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
Invested
$1.25
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$2.35
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.83
Value
$1.84
PnL
-$1.98
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.