Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold PFK Mash AL Mubarek, while the market favors PFK Dinamo Samarqand (99%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Spread: PFK Dinamo Samarqand (-1.5)
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold PFK Mash AL Mubarek (100%) · PFK Mash AL Mubarek at 1.1¢ · $608 held · ended Oct 31
⚠️
Avoid
PFK Mash AL Mubarek
4
PFK Mash AL Mubarek 100%
$607.85
-$321.38
55¢ → 1.1¢
-98% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidPFK Mash AL Mubarek at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors PFK Dinamo Samarqand 99%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BA BayupatiCTR | PFK Mash AL Mubarekavg 58¢ | $497.74 | $308.94 | -$188.8 | 51% 226-220 (446) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR | PFK Mash AL Mubarekavg 53.7¢ | $192.81 | $129.24 | -$63.57 | 58% 28689-21179 (49868) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | PFK Mash AL Mubarekavg 49¢ | $136.11 | $100 | -$36.11 | 49% 19156-19549 (38705) |
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3CTR | PFK Mash AL Mubarekavg 53¢ | $102.57 | $69.67 | -$32.9 | 50% 2512-2496 (5008) |
Invested
$497.74
Value
$308.94
PnL
-$188.8
Record
51%
226-220 (446)
Invested
$192.81
Value
$129.24
PnL
-$63.57
Record
58%
28689-21179 (49868)
Invested
$136.11
Value
$100
PnL
-$36.11
Record
49%
19156-19549 (38705)
Invested
$102.57
Value
$69.67
PnL
-$32.9
Record
50%
2512-2496 (5008)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
1.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.