Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (56%). 1 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Lokomotiv Tashkent win on 2026-11-01?
1 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (25%) · Yes at 45¢ · $951 held · ended Nov 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 25%
1 arb excluded
$951.06
$121.95
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 4 top traders (25%)Underdog side (market favors No 56%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 30¢ | $388 | $504.84 | +$116.84 | 50% 25644-25471 (51115) |
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100 | Noavg 54.7¢ | $301.22 | $322.34 | +$22.09 | 57% 29224-21607 (50831) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 54.7¢ | $217.58 | $242.78 | +$27.19 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 41¢ | $83.64 | $79.56 | -$5.1 | |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $93.49 | $98.41 | +$4.92 | 58% 42662-31048 (73710) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $20.57 | $20.99 | +$0.42 | 54% 6424-5409 (11833) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 60.9¢ | $4.71 | $4.47 | -$0.24 | 53% 5597-5025 (10622) |
Invested
$388
Value
$504.84
PnL
+$116.84
Record
50%
25644-25471 (51115)
Invested
$301.22
Value
$322.34
PnL
+$22.09
Record
57%
29224-21607 (50831)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$93.49
Value
$98.41
PnL
+$4.92
Record
58%
42662-31048 (73710)
Invested
$20.57
Value
$20.99
PnL
+$0.42
Record
54%
6424-5409 (11833)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$4.71
Value
$4.47
PnL
-$0.24
Record
53%
5597-5025 (10622)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
44.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.