Will Qizilqum Zarafshon win on 2026-10-30?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 92¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.0K
$287.38
82.5¢ → 92¢
+12% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Noavg 83¢ | $1.5K | $1.7K | +$127.36 | 54% 56317-48472 (104789) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 10.1¢ | $156.71 | $311.7 | +$154.98 | 50% 24854-24560 (49414) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $37.26 | $38.88 | +$3.24 | 58% 28414-20974 (49388) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $13.09 | $16.29 | +$3.19 | 52% 3998-3640 (7638) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $6.15 | $5.45 | -$0.7 | 54% 6194-5243 (11437) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $30.17 | $5.32 | -$0.69 | 58% 41493-30115 (71608) |
RN1Invested
$1,529.5
Value
$1.7K
PnL
+$127.36
Record
54%
56317-48472 (104789)
Invested
$156.71
Value
$311.7
PnL
+$154.98
Record
50%
24854-24560 (49414)
Invested
$37.26
Value
$38.88
PnL
+$3.24
Record
58%
28414-20974 (49388)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$13.09
Value
$16.29
PnL
+$3.19
Record
52%
3998-3640 (7638)
Invested
$6.15
Value
$5.45
PnL
-$0.7
Record
54%
6194-5243 (11437)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$30.17
Value
$5.32
PnL
-$0.69
Record
58%
41493-30115 (71608)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.