Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (56%). 10 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-11-11?

10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 44¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

-$127.58

Smart Money Entry

60.8¢ → 44¢

-28% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,235

Combined PnL-$127.58

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fundCTR	Noavg 61.3¢	$343.52	$308.39	-$35.14	29% 2584-6181 (8765)
KO korda77CTR	Noavg 60¢	$261	$239.25	-$21.75	86% 36-6 (42)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR	Noavg 60.3¢	$156.16	$142.4	-$13.76	38% 283-455 (738)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR	Noavg 64.6¢	$160.66	$136.76	-$23.9	43% 268-351 (619)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR	Noavg 64.5¢	$149.07	$127.15	-$21.92	44% 254-318 (572)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$93.42	$91.04	-$2.39	39% 603-947 (1550)
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100	Noavg 60.9¢	$80.86	$73.07	-$7.78	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100	Noavg 55.6¢	$64.46	$64.94	+$0.48	39% 274-427 (701)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100	Noavg 56.6¢	$29.69	$28.85	-$0.84	38% 287-478 (765)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Noavg 56.4¢	$22.81	$22.22	-$0.58	53% 5469-4897 (10366)

qwen300.fundCTR

Invested

$343.52

Value

$308.39

PnL

-$35.14

Record

29%

2584-6181 (8765)

korda77CTR

Invested

$261

Value

$239.25

PnL

-$21.75

Record

86%

36-6 (42)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579CTR

Invested

$156.16

Value

$142.4

PnL

-$13.76

Record

38%

283-455 (738)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702CTR

Invested

$160.66

Value

$136.76

PnL

-$23.9

Record

43%

268-351 (619)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293CTR

Invested

$149.07

Value

$127.15

PnL

-$21.92

Record

44%

254-318 (572)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225CTR<$100

Invested

$93.42

Value

$91.04

PnL

-$2.39

Record

39%

603-947 (1550)

BiggggggggCTR<$100

Invested

$80.86

Value

$73.07

PnL

-$7.78

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100

Invested

$64.46

Value

$64.94

PnL

+$0.48

Record

39%

274-427 (701)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343CTR<$100

Invested

$29.69

Value

$28.85

PnL

-$0.84

Record

38%

287-478 (765)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Invested

$22.81

Value

$22.22

PnL

-$0.58

Record

53%

5469-4897 (10366)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 44%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 10 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 56%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 44%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 44% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 8

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance46.2%

44.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$116.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

216.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.