Will Sparta Prague win on 2026-11-11?

10 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 85¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 11

Yes15¢No85¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 83%

Total Value

$1.9K

Combined PnL

$312

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 84.7¢

-13% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes15%

No85%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,687

Combined PnL-$24.4

Yes2 traders

Total Value$336.36

Total Shares1,686

Combined PnL+$336.4

No — 83%Yes — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
QW qwen300.fund	Noavg 96¢	$509.5	$505.71	-$3.79	29% 2584-6181 (8765)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343	Noavg 98.2¢	$397.44	$385.63	-$11.81	38% 287-478 (765)
CA canupdatelateronCTR	Yesavg 1.8¢	$33.86	$276.54	+$281.68	— 0-1 (1)
0X 0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579	Noavg 97.7¢	$238.35	$232.57	-$5.78	38% 283-455 (738)
BI Bigggggggg	Noavg 94.8¢	$154.41	$155.21	+$0.81	53% 1602-1414 (3016)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023	Noavg 96.5¢	$110.95	$109.62	-$1.33	39% 274-427 (701)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$86.06	$84.05	-$2.01	43% 268-351 (619)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$64.54	$64.19	-$0.34	39% 603-947 (1550)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$5.1	$59.82	+$54.72	12% 16-115 (131)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$39.27	$38.51	-$0.76	53% 5469-4897 (10366)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 94¢	$28.68	$29.07	+$0.39	44% 254-318 (572)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 89¢	$3.29	$3.52	+$0.23	43% 2556-3350 (5906)

qwen300.fund

Invested

$509.5

Value

$505.71

PnL

-$3.79

Record

29%

2584-6181 (8765)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343

Invested

$397.44

Value

$385.63

PnL

-$11.81

Record

38%

287-478 (765)

canupdatelateronCTR

Yes

Invested

$33.86

Value

$276.54

PnL

+$281.68

Record

—

0-1 (1)

0x3653235d75A0d5969C42f7514d4Df8eA5F8CEF74-1778811817579

Invested

$238.35

Value

$232.57

PnL

-$5.78

Record

38%

283-455 (738)

Bigggggggg

Invested

$154.41

Value

$155.21

PnL

+$0.81

Record

53%

1602-1414 (3016)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023

Invested

$110.95

Value

$109.62

PnL

-$1.33

Record

39%

274-427 (701)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$86.06

Value

$84.05

PnL

-$2.01

Record

43%

268-351 (619)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$64.54

Value

$64.19

PnL

-$0.34

Record

39%

603-947 (1550)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.1

Value

$59.82

PnL

+$54.72

Record

12%

16-115 (131)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$39.27

Value

$38.51

PnL

-$0.76

Record

53%

5469-4897 (10366)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$28.68

Value

$29.07

PnL

+$0.39

Record

44%

254-318 (572)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$3.29

Value

$3.52

PnL

+$0.23

Record

43%

2556-3350 (5906)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 85%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 12 top traders (83%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 55%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 55% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 7

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000No 83% · 12

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance86.3%

84.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$15.92

Max Loss

-$100.00

115.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.