Sparta Prague vs. SCU Torreense: O/U 3.5

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 72¢ · $804 held · ended Oct 29

Over28¢Under72¢Ended Thu, Oct 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 75%

Total Value

$803.87

Combined PnL

$8.13

Smart Money Entry

71.3¢ → 72¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over28%

Under72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$801.87

Total Shares1,114

Combined PnL+$8.43

Over1 trader

Total Value$2

Total Shares10

Combined PnL-$0.3

Under — 75%Over — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Underavg 71¢	$463.63	$470.16	+$6.53	49% 12407-12722 (25129)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 71.8¢	$325.31	$326.06	+$0.75	59% 45116-31500 (76616)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 67.4¢	$4.51	$5.65	+$1.15	52% 3711-3383 (7094)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$2.3	$2	-$0.3	58% 28255-20837 (49092)

LuckyLoo

Under

Invested

$463.63

Value

$470.16

PnL

+$6.53

Record

49%

12407-12722 (25129)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$325.31

Value

$326.06

PnL

+$0.75

Record

59%

45116-31500 (76616)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$4.51

Value

$5.65

PnL

+$1.15

Record

52%

3711-3383 (7094)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.3

Value

PnL

-$0.3

Record

58%

28255-20837 (49092)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 72%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance74.0%

72.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$35.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

135.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.