Sparta Prague vs. SCU Torreense: O/U 2.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 54¢ · $324 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Over
3
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$324.23
-$0.66
Research grade
NeutralOver at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 56.2¢ | $293.89 | $284.8 | -$9.09 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 56.2¢ | $175.62 | $171.77 | -$3.85 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 47.1¢ | $118.27 | $113.03 | -$5.24 | |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 53¢ | $26.5 | $25.5 | -$1 | 58% 28254-20837 (49091) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 54.3¢ | $7.84 | $7.77 | -$0.07 | 52% 3686-3349 (7035) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 40¢ | $5.75 | $6.16 | +$0.41 | 59% 45093-31481 (76574) |
Invested
$293.89
Value
$284.8
PnL
-$9.09
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
Both legs:
Invested
$26.5
Value
$25.5
PnL
-$1
Record
58%
28254-20837 (49091)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$7.84
Value
$7.77
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
3686-3349 (7035)
Invested
$5.75
Value
$6.16
PnL
+$0.41
Record
59%
45093-31481 (76574)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.