Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will SCU Torreense win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$1.2K
$136.84
63.1¢ → 50¢
-21% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $292.04 | $382.22 | +$90.18 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 62.4¢ | $217.87 | $321.06 | +$103.19 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Noavg 62¢ | $186 | $276 | +$6 | 60% 867-573 (1440) |
LU LuckyLoo | Noavg 62.9¢ | $261.46 | $207.92 | -$53.54 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 77.7¢ | $37.66 | $28.67 | -$8.99 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
Invested
$292.04
Value
$382.22
PnL
+$90.18
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$217.87
Value
$321.06
PnL
+$103.19
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
Invested
$186
Value
$276
PnL
+$6
Record
60%
867-573 (1440)
Invested
$261.46
Value
$207.92
PnL
-$53.54
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$37.66
Value
$28.67
PnL
-$8.99
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.