Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-10-28?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.1K
-$20.81
49.3¢ → 53¢
+7% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 53%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LU lukibazdonauki754 | Yesavg 48.9¢ | $719.88 | $714.26 | -$5.62 | 60% 859-570 (1429) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Yesavg 50¢ | $243 | $235.71 | -$7.29 | 49% 18605-19035 (37640) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 49.9¢ | $110.05 | $103.64 | -$6.41 | 58% 40758-29479 (70237) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Yesavg 56.3¢ | $27.29 | $25.69 | -$1.61 | 59% 44610-31007 (75617) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 51¢ | $3.08 | $3.2 | +$0.12 | 53% 3056-2718 (5774) |
Invested
$719.88
Value
$714.26
PnL
-$5.62
Record
60%
859-570 (1429)
Invested
$243
Value
$235.71
PnL
-$7.29
Record
49%
18605-19035 (37640)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$110.05
Value
$103.64
PnL
-$6.41
Record
58%
40758-29479 (70237)
Invested
$27.29
Value
$25.69
PnL
-$1.61
Record
59%
44610-31007 (75617)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.08
Value
$3.2
PnL
+$0.12
Record
53%
3056-2718 (5774)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.