Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (96%). 4 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FK Austria Wien: Neither team to score first?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 4.3¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 11
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$5.7K
-$631.7
33.9¢ → 4.3¢
-87% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 4%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)Underdog side (market favors No 96%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Fresh
7h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BL BlackMamba08CTR | Yesavg 22.9¢ | $2.6K | $2.2K | -$257.54 | — 2-3 (5) |
E4 e46m3 | Noavg 76.1¢ | $1.6K | $1.9K | +$345.8 | 43% 2558-3353 (5911) |
 Cypya | Noavg 53.9¢ | $809.96 | $1.4K | +$616.43 | — 1-3 (4) |
RO roscoffCTR | Yesavg 70¢ | $1.4K | $84 | $-1.3K | 51% 39-38 (77) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3¢ | $5.97 | $8.36 | +$2.39 | 12% 18-127 (145) |
 SharkbettingComCTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $27.75 | $4.66 | -$23.09 | 0% 0-64 (64) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $1.03 | $1.34 | +$0.31 | 30% 2638-6194 (8832) |
Invested
$2,625.35
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$257.54
Record
—
2-3 (5)
Invested
$1,550.41
Value
$1.9K
PnL
+$345.8
Record
43%
2558-3353 (5911)
CypyaInvested
$809.96
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$616.43
Record
—
1-3 (4)
Invested
$1,400
Value
$84
PnL
$-1.3K
Record
51%
39-38 (77)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$5.97
Value
$8.36
PnL
+$2.39
Record
12%
18-127 (145)
SharkbettingComCTR<$100Invested
$27.75
Value
$4.66
PnL
-$23.09
Record
0%
0-64 (64)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$1.34
PnL
+$0.31
Record
30%
2638-6194 (8832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.