Will Servette FC Chênois Féminin win on 2026-10-28?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 57%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

$209.03

Smart Money Entry

79.7¢ → 99.5¢

+25% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,193

Combined PnL+$105.68

No3 traders

Total Value$541.55

Total Shares1,186

Combined PnL+$103.34

Yes — 57%No — 43%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 92.1¢	$790.83	$832.87	+$42.05	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
oieshfn345CTR	Noavg 41.2¢	$412.91	$521.56	+$108.65	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
RN1	Yesavg 58¢	$117.84	$158.16	+$40.32	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
OM omnibus-076daa<$100	Yesavg 33¢	$51.14	$74.39	+$23.25	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Yesavg 97¢	$22.96	$23.03	+$0.07	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 6.9¢	$17.36	$17.39	-$5.91	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$2	$2.6	+$0.6	54% 6048-5126 (11174)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$790.83

Value

$832.87

PnL

+$42.05

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

oieshfn345CTR

Invested

$412.91

Value

$521.56

PnL

+$108.65

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$117.84

Value

$158.16

PnL

+$40.32

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

omnibus-076daa<$100

Yes

Invested

$51.14

Value

$74.39

PnL

+$23.25

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.96

Value

$23.03

PnL

+$0.07

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$17.36

Value

$17.39

PnL

-$5.91

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Invested

Value

$2.6

PnL

+$0.6

Record

54%

6048-5126 (11174)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.