Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (55%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Paris FC vs. BK Häcken FF: O/U 3.5
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 45¢ · $84 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Under
4
Under 75%
$84.43
-$23.62
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 45%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Over 55%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Underavg 63.5¢ | $126.98 | $45 | -$16.41 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 58.8¢ | $34.36 | $26.28 | -$8.08 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $10.55 | $11.17 | +$0.78 | 58% 28255-20837 (49092) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $1.89 | $1.98 | +$0.09 | 52% 3711-3383 (7094) |
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$126.98
Value
$45
PnL
-$16.41
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$34.36
Value
$26.28
PnL
-$8.08
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$10.55
Value
$11.17
PnL
+$0.78
Record
58%
28255-20837 (49092)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.89
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.09
Record
52%
3711-3383 (7094)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.