Will Paris FC win on 2026-10-29?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 88¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
$1.2K
$72.13
84.7¢ → 88¢
+4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345 | Yesavg 84.7¢ | $1.5K | $1.1K | +$79.15 | 57% 1660-1239 (2899) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 88¢ | $9.29 | $8.45 | -$0.84 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Noavg 51.7¢ | $31.55 | $5.45 | -$6.18 | 58% 41266-29916 (71182) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.