Will BK Häcken FF win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 99¢ · $836 held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$836.3
-$62.54
76.4¢ → 99.5¢
+30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 75.9¢ | $851.69 | $796.72 | -$54.98 | 59% 45116-31500 (76616) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $38.72 | $30.89 | -$7.83 | 50% 24694-24376 (49070) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $6.14 | $5.07 | -$1.07 | 49% 12407-12722 (25129) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 28.8¢ | $17.84 | $2.02 | -$0.14 | 58% 41239-29904 (71143) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.11 | $1.6 | +$1.49 | 50% 33068-32636 (65704) |
Invested
$851.69
Value
$796.72
PnL
-$54.98
Record
59%
45116-31500 (76616)
Invested
$38.72
Value
$30.89
PnL
-$7.83
Record
50%
24694-24376 (49070)
Invested
$6.14
Value
$5.07
PnL
-$1.07
Record
49%
12407-12722 (25129)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$17.84
Value
$2.02
PnL
-$0.14
Record
58%
41239-29904 (71143)
Invested
$0.11
Value
$1.6
PnL
+$1.49
Record
50%
33068-32636 (65704)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.