Spread: OL Lyonnes (-2.5)
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold OL Lyonnes (67%) · OL Lyonnes at 73¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
OL Lyonnes
6
OL Lyonnes 67%
1 arb excluded
$2.0K
-$213.6
57.3¢ → 72.5¢
+27% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOL Lyonnes at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | OL Lyonnesavg 56¢ | $565.74 | $570.65 | +$4.91 | 49% 18625-19055 (37680) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 38.5¢ | $772.01 | $481.13 | -$290.88 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 44.1¢ | $471.67 | $315.8 | -$155.87 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
| └ FC Internazionale Milano leg | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 44.1¢ | $410.22 | $241.8 | -$168.42 | |
| └ OL Lyonnes leg | OL Lyonnesavg 61.4¢ | $61.45 | $74 | +$12.55 | |
 VeryLucky888 | OL Lyonnesavg 59.2¢ | $355 | $304 | +$61 | 58% 40796-29505 (70301) |
BB bbbetk | OL Lyonnesavg 55¢ | $209.61 | $217.23 | +$1.91 | 50% 145-147 (292) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | OL Lyonnesavg 72.4¢ | $65.16 | $76.5 | +$11.34 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | FC Internazionale Milanoavg 35.2¢ | $3.26 | $1.39 | -$1.87 | 53% 3098-2756 (5854) |
Invested
$565.74
Value
$570.65
PnL
+$4.91
Record
49%
18625-19055 (37680)
Invested
$772.01
Value
$481.13
PnL
-$290.88
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$471.67
Value
$315.8
PnL
-$155.87
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Both legs:
VeryLucky888Invested
$355
Value
$304
PnL
+$61
Record
58%
40796-29505 (70301)
Invested
$209.61
Value
$217.23
PnL
+$1.91
Record
50%
145-147 (292)
Invested
$65.16
Value
$76.5
PnL
+$11.34
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.26
Value
$1.39
PnL
-$1.87
Record
53%
3098-2756 (5854)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.