Will OL Lyonnes win on 2026-10-28?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 92¢ · $26K held · ends Oct 28

Yes92¢No8¢Ends Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 80%

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

-$36.31

Smart Money Entry

88.9¢ → 91.5¢

+3% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes92%

No9%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$21.8K

Total Shares24,326

Combined PnL+$138.15

No2 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares40,494

Combined PnL-$174.46

Yes — 80%No — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Yesavg 88.7¢	$16.3K	$16.5K	+$150.34	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
aibabyCTR	Noavg 10.9¢	$4.4K	$4.2K	-$175.66	53% 98-88 (186)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 89.8¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	-$8.18	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
RN1	Yesavg 90¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	-$8.31	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
HRTrading	Yesavg 89.3¢	$435.08	$436.14	+$1.06	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 89.8¢	$221.96	$217.66	-$0.61	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 90¢	$134.36	$136.6	+$2.24	65% 1667-897 (2564)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Yesavg 88¢	$83.91	$87.26	+$1.46	63% 1075-625 (1700)
0X 0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100	Yesavg 91¢	$27.34	$27.49	+$0.15	53% 5503-4847 (10350)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$2.39	$3.58	+$1.19	52% 5878-5516 (11394)

UpTheBlues

Yes

Invested

$16,324.28

Value

$16.5K

PnL

+$150.34

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

aibabyCTR

Invested

$4,424.37

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$175.66

Record

53%

98-88 (186)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$2,918.77

Value

$2.9K

PnL

-$8.18

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$1,495.73

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$8.31

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

HRTrading

Yes

Invested

$435.08

Value

$436.14

PnL

+$1.06

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$221.96

Value

$217.66

PnL

-$0.61

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$134.36

Value

$136.6

PnL

+$2.24

Record

65%

1667-897 (2564)

lonmi2511<$100

Yes

Invested

$83.91

Value

$87.26

PnL

+$1.46

Record

63%

1075-625 (1700)

0x5b624e3E0426F7AA2Ca57F7451fbcEa4b125D87f-1769796221989<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.34

Value

$27.49

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

5503-4847 (10350)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$2.39

Value

$3.58

PnL

+$1.19

Record

52%

5878-5516 (11394)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 92%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance92.8%

91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$7.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

107.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.