Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-10-28?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 28

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$3.2K

Combined PnL

$69.3

Smart Money Entry

96.8¢ → 99.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares3,171

Combined PnL+$49

Yes2 traders

Total Value$32.52

Total Shares1,095

Combined PnL+$20.3

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 97¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	+$36.34	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 97¢	$711.33	$710.6	-$0.73	50% 24384-24001 (48385)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 93.4¢	$263.73	$274.76	+$15.96	58% 40796-29505 (70301)
RN1	Noavg 98.4¢	$234.93	$236.84	+$1.91	54% 55742-47837 (103579)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 98.6¢	$105.1	$105.36	+$0.27	50% 12135-12341 (24476)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 99¢	$47.36	$49.15	+$1.78	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 93¢	$55.14	$48.61	-$6.52	52% 2431-2221 (4652)
LO lonmi2511CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.1¢	$2.39	$20.23	+$17.85	63% 1083-626 (1709)
oieshfn345CTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$9.83	$12.29	+$2.46	57% 1626-1210 (2836)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,662.66

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$36.34

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$711.33

Value

$710.6

PnL

-$0.73

Record

50%

24384-24001 (48385)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$263.73

Value

$274.76

PnL

+$15.96

Record

58%

40796-29505 (70301)

RN1

Invested

$234.93

Value

$236.84

PnL

+$1.91

Record

54%

55742-47837 (103579)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$105.1

Value

$105.36

PnL

+$0.27

Record

50%

12135-12341 (24476)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$47.36

Value

$49.15

PnL

+$1.78

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

merod<$100

Invested

$55.14

Value

$48.61

PnL

-$6.52

Record

52%

2431-2221 (4652)

lonmi2511CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.39

Value

$20.23

PnL

+$17.85

Record

63%

1083-626 (1709)

oieshfn345CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.83

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$2.46

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.