Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (73%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Manchester City WFC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5
2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Over (50%) · Over at 28¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 29
⚠️
Avoid
Over
4
Over 50%
2 arb excluded
$3.8K
$9.01
83¢ → 27.5¢
-67% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 28%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Under 73%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 67.5¢ | $2.4K | $2.2K | -$221.06 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 67.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$70.63 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 40.6¢ | $1.0K | $731.98 | -$291.69 | |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Underavg 68.7¢ | $1.7K | $1.4K | -$339.33 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 68.7¢ | $883.04 | $925.24 | +$42.19 | |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 50.8¢ | $850.4 | $468.88 | -$381.52 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 16.9¢ | $39.48 | $117.11 | +$77.62 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 83¢ | $172.01 | $104.1 | -$67.91 | 49% 12429-12737 (25166) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Underavg 28.5¢ | $2.29 | $3.3 | +$1 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Overavg 84¢ | $4.2 | $2.5 | -$1.7 | 49% 18854-19262 (38116) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$2,381.39
Value
$2.2K
PnL
-$221.06
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,733.45
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$339.33
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Both legs:
Invested
$39.48
Value
$117.11
PnL
+$77.62
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
Invested
$172.01
Value
$104.1
PnL
-$67.91
Record
49%
12429-12737 (25166)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$2.29
Value
$3.3
PnL
+$1
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
Invested
$4.2
Value
$2.5
PnL
-$1.7
Record
49%
18854-19262 (38116)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.