Will Manchester City WFC win on 2026-10-29?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 54¢ · $6K held · ended Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
2 arb excluded
$6.0K
$20.88
40.7¢ → 53.5¢
+31% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 54%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 oieshfn345ARB<$100 | Noavg 44.1¢ | $3.5K | $3.9K | +$379.04 | 57% 1660-1239 (2899) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 44.1¢ | $1.9K | $2.4K | +$413.45 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 47.5¢ | $1.6K | $1.6K | -$34.41 | |
 RN1ARB<$100 | Noavg 52.4¢ | $1.9K | $1.8K | -$64.56 | 54% 56053-48184 (104237) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 52.4¢ | $1.3K | $1.3K | +$2.48 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 53.3¢ | $618.56 | $551.51 | -$67.04 | |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 42.3¢ | $238.71 | $256.75 | +$18.03 | 50% 24706-24393 (49099) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 32¢ | $31.72 | $33.7 | +$1.98 | 59% 45140-31520 (76660) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 55¢ | $10.26 | $11.24 | +$1.11 | 52% 3741-3403 (7144) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $5.3 | $5 | -$0.3 | 54% 6145-5212 (11357) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 33¢ | $1.65 | $1.7 | +$0.05 | 49% 12429-12737 (25166) |
oieshfn345ARB<$100Invested
$3,525.04
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$379.04
Record
57%
1660-1239 (2899)
Both legs:
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$1,869.06
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$64.56
Record
54%
56053-48184 (104237)
Both legs:
Invested
$238.71
Value
$256.75
PnL
+$18.03
Record
50%
24706-24393 (49099)
Invested
$31.72
Value
$33.7
PnL
+$1.98
Record
59%
45140-31520 (76660)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$10.26
Value
$11.24
PnL
+$1.11
Record
52%
3741-3403 (7144)
Invested
$5.3
Value
$5
PnL
-$0.3
Record
54%
6145-5212 (11357)
Invested
$1.65
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
12429-12737 (25166)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.