Will Juventus FC win on 2026-10-29?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 51¢ · $366 held · ends Oct 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$365.69
-$3.14
51.2¢ → 50.5¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 52¢ | $211.18 | $209.14 | -$2.05 | 49% 18813-19212 (38025) |
 us391<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $73.5 | $72.75 | -$0.75 | 51% 1664-1610 (3274) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 48.7¢ | $53.12 | $52.92 | -$0.2 | 59% 45090-31481 (76571) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Noavg 51.5¢ | $27.37 | $27.38 | +$0 | 50% 24686-24362 (49048) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 50¢ | $2.28 | $2.21 | -$0.07 | 52% 3684-3346 (7030) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 52¢ | $5.2 | $1.29 | -$0.09 | 58% 41203-29875 (71078) |
Invested
$211.18
Value
$209.14
PnL
-$2.05
Record
49%
18813-19212 (38025)
us391<$100Invested
$73.5
Value
$72.75
PnL
-$0.75
Record
51%
1664-1610 (3274)
Invested
$53.12
Value
$52.92
PnL
-$0.2
Record
59%
45090-31481 (76571)
Invested
$27.37
Value
$27.38
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
24686-24362 (49048)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$2.28
Value
$2.21
PnL
-$0.07
Record
52%
3684-3346 (7030)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$5.2
Value
$1.29
PnL
-$0.09
Record
58%
41203-29875 (71078)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.