Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (50%). 0 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Chelsea FC vs. AS Roma: O/U 2.5
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 50¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 67%
1 arb excluded
$1.7K
-$117.44
63.1¢ → 50¢
-21% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Over 50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1ARB<$100 | Underavg 50.1¢ | $381.56 | $825.65 | +$444.09 | 54% 55742-47837 (103579) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 7.3¢ | $76.1 | $521.03 | +$444.92 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 50.1¢ | $305.45 | $304.63 | -$0.83 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 62.8¢ | $735.25 | $628.59 | -$106.66 | 59% 44644-31046 (75690) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 50.2¢ | $287.92 | $282.08 | -$5.84 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
PA pauleta23<$100 | Underavg 99¢ | $10 | $5.05 | -$4.95 | 67% 23116-11520 (34636) |
RN1ARB<$100Invested
$381.56
Value
$825.65
PnL
+$444.09
Record
54%
55742-47837 (103579)
Both legs:
Invested
$735.25
Value
$628.59
PnL
-$106.66
Record
59%
44644-31046 (75690)
Invested
$287.92
Value
$282.08
PnL
-$5.84
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$10
Value
$5.05
PnL
-$4.95
Record
67%
23116-11520 (34636)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.