Spread: Chelsea FC (-1.5)
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Chelsea FC (100%) · Chelsea FC at 52¢ · $243 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Chelsea FC
3
Chelsea FC 100%
$243.47
-$217.11
98.6¢ → 52¢
-47% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralChelsea FC at 52%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105 | Chelsea FCavg 99¢ | $457.31 | $240.2 | -$217.11 | 95% 22896-1152 (24048) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 62¢ | $1.63 | $1.63 | +$0 | 50% 24384-24001 (48385) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Chelsea FCavg 62¢ | $1.63 | $1.63 | +$0 | 50% 32798-32351 (65149) |
Invested
$457.31
Value
$240.2
PnL
-$217.11
Record
95%
22896-1152 (24048)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$1.63
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
24384-24001 (48385)
Invested
$1.63
Value
$1.63
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
32798-32351 (65149)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
52.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.