Will Chelsea FC vs. AS Roma end in a draw?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 88¢ · $832 held · ended Oct 28

Yes12¢No88¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$831.76

Combined PnL

-$48.04

Smart Money Entry

94.2¢ → 88¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$826.97

Total Shares931

Combined PnL-$50.43

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.79

Total Shares40

Combined PnL+$2.39

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 95.2¢	$732.04	$676.54	-$55.5	59% 44644-31046 (75690)
poshposh	Noavg 89¢	$133.5	$139.5	+$6	60% 9402-6388 (15790)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 92.9¢	$10.92	$10.93	-$0.93	53% 3098-2756 (5854)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 6¢	$2.39	$4.79	+$2.39	52% 5884-5521 (11405)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$732.04

Value

$676.54

PnL

-$55.5

Record

59%

44644-31046 (75690)

poshposh

Invested

$133.5

Value

$139.5

PnL

+$6

Record

60%

9402-6388 (15790)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.92

Value

$10.93

PnL

-$0.93

Record

53%

3098-2756 (5854)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.39

Value

$4.79

PnL

+$2.39

Record

52%

5884-5521 (11405)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.