Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-10-28?

6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 88¢ · $18K held · ended Oct 28

Yes88¢No12¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$17.9K

Combined PnL

$192.51

Smart Money Entry

85.1¢ → 88¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes88%

No12%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$14.4K

Total Shares16,821

Combined PnL+$256.77

No3 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares21,153

Combined PnL-$64.26

Yes — 67%No — 33%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Yesavg 85¢	$12.6K	$12.8K	+$370.27	54% 55721-47803 (103524)
aibabyCTR	Noavg 14.8¢	$3.0K	$3.0K	-$68.17	53% 98-88 (186)
VeryLucky888	Yesavg 86.2¢	$1.0K	$964.24	+$5.28	58% 40758-29479 (70237)
SN SnakeBall	Yesavg 86¢	$532.34	$439.49	-$92.85	50% 32772-32330 (65102)
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 13.7¢	$399.85	$377.63	-$22.23	59% 44610-31007 (75617)
└ No leg	Noavg 13.7¢	$269.49	$246.38	-$23.12
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 86.9¢	$130.36	$131.25	+$0.89
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Noavg 13¢	$100.68	$104.55	+$3.87	50% 24366-23976 (48342)
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 86¢	$124.28	$102.6	-$21.68	65% 1667-897 (2564)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Yesavg 85¢	$88.42	$88.94	+$0.52	63% 1075-624 (1699)
HRTrading<$100	Yesavg 87.5¢	$25.39	$20.61	-$4.78	53% 3056-2718 (5774)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$1.04	$1.08	+$0.04	52% 5875-5510 (11385)

RN1

Yes

Invested

$12,588.5

Value

$12.8K

PnL

+$370.27

Record

54%

55721-47803 (103524)

aibabyCTR

Invested

$3,021.78

Value

$3.0K

PnL

-$68.17

Record

53%

98-88 (186)

VeryLucky888

Yes

Invested

$1,034

Value

$964.24

PnL

+$5.28

Record

58%

40758-29479 (70237)

SnakeBall

Yes

Invested

$532.34

Value

$439.49

PnL

-$92.85

Record

50%

32772-32330 (65102)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$399.85

Value

$377.63

PnL

-$22.23

Record

59%

44610-31007 (75617)

Both legs:

No$269.4913.7¢-$23.12

Yes$130.3686.9¢+$0.89

GoalLineGhostCTR

Invested

$100.68

Value

$104.55

PnL

+$3.87

Record

50%

24366-23976 (48342)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$124.28

Value

$102.6

PnL

-$21.68

Record

65%

1667-897 (2564)

lonmi2511<$100

Yes

Invested

$88.42

Value

$88.94

PnL

+$0.52

Record

63%

1075-624 (1699)

HRTrading<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.39

Value

$20.61

PnL

-$4.78

Record

53%

3056-2718 (5774)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Invested

$1.04

Value

$1.08

PnL

+$0.04

Record

52%

5875-5510 (11385)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

6 of 9 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.5%

88.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$11.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

111.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.