FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF Femenino: O/U 5.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 87¢ · $10K held · ended Oct 28

Over13¢Under87¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$10.5K

Combined PnL

$170.43

Smart Money Entry

57.2¢ → 87¢

+52% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over13%

Under87%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares11,389

Combined PnL+$256.67

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares12,778

Combined PnL-$86.25

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 56.4¢	$5.7K	$5.8K	+$110.15	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
RN1CTR	Overavg 43¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$29.17	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 60.7¢	$504.82	$682.34	+$177.52	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
OX oxe78sh4w98CTR	Overavg 13¢	$551.9	$594.35	+$42.45	53% 338-304 (642)
poshposhCTR	Overavg 14.5¢	$96.51	$281.97	+$185.46	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 29.8¢	$538.09	$252.95	-$285.14	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
SA Saber-greed	Underavg 55.9¢	$132.22	$131.17	-$1.05	59% 2526-1758 (4284)
UP UpTheBlues	Underavg 82¢	$105.72	$96.11	-$9.61	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 86.5¢	$73.75	$53.41	-$20.34	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
AD adururuCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$0.55	$0.7	+$0.15	53% 365-320 (685)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$5,701.47

Value

$5.8K

PnL

+$110.15

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$2,606.45

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$29.17

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$504.82

Value

$682.34

PnL

+$177.52

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

oxe78sh4w98CTR

Over

Invested

$551.9

Value

$594.35

PnL

+$42.45

Record

53%

338-304 (642)

poshposhCTR

Over

Invested

$96.51

Value

$281.97

PnL

+$185.46

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$538.09

Value

$252.95

PnL

-$285.14

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

Saber-greed

Under

Invested

$132.22

Value

$131.17

PnL

-$1.05

Record

59%

2526-1758 (4284)

UpTheBlues

Under

Invested

$105.72

Value

$96.11

PnL

-$9.61

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$73.75

Value

$53.41

PnL

-$20.34

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

adururuCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.55

Value

$0.7

PnL

+$0.15

Record

53%

365-320 (685)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 87%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance88.5%

87.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

113.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.