FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF Femenino: O/U 4.5

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (70%) · Under at 51¢ · $7K held · ended Oct 28

Over50¢Under50¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 70%

Total Value

$6.5K

Combined PnL

$-2.7K

Smart Money Entry

48.8¢ → 50.5¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over50%

Under51%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$4.5K

Total Shares15,243

Combined PnL$-2.9K

Over3 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares3,414

Combined PnL+$214.4

Under — 70%Over — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
OM omnibus-076daa	Underavg 49.2¢	$7.1K	$4.2K	$-2.9K	49% 18616-19046 (37662)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Overavg 50.6¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$240.52	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 52¢	$668.2	$642.5	-$25.7	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
SA Saber-greed	Underavg 48¢	$234.07	$243.82	+$9.75	59% 2526-1758 (4284)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 36¢	$39.8	$41.97	+$2.17	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
RN1<$100	Underavg 31.9¢	$32.66	$33.3	+$0.64	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 30¢	$13.58	$18.78	+$5.2	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 27.8¢	$8.39	$13.45	+$5.06	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
AR ARocky33CTR<$100	Overavg 76¢	$10.64	$10.22	-$0.42	76% 3924-1248 (5172)
HRTrading<$100	Underavg 33.2¢	$10.9	$7.38	-$3.52	53% 3080-2737 (5817)

omnibus-076daa

Under

Invested

$7,100.21

Value

$4.2K

PnL

$-2.9K

Record

49%

18616-19046 (37662)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Over

Invested

$1,071.01

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$240.52

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$668.2

Value

$642.5

PnL

-$25.7

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

Saber-greed

Under

Invested

$234.07

Value

$243.82

PnL

+$9.75

Record

59%

2526-1758 (4284)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$39.8

Value

$41.97

PnL

+$2.17

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

RN1<$100

Under

Invested

$32.66

Value

$33.3

PnL

+$0.64

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$13.58

Value

$18.78

PnL

+$5.2

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$8.39

Value

$13.45

PnL

+$5.06

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

ARocky33CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$10.64

Value

$10.22

PnL

-$0.42

Record

76%

3924-1248 (5172)

HRTrading<$100

Under

Invested

$10.9

Value

$7.38

PnL

-$3.52

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 51%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance52.7%

50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$89.58

Max Loss

-$100.00

189.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.