Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 3 of 7 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF Femenino: O/U 3.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 28
⚠️
Avoid
Under
7
Under 43%
$2.4K
$539.83
38.9¢ → 0.1¢
-100% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OM omnibus-076daaCTR | Underavg 38.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.4K | +$316.76 | 49% 18616-19046 (37662) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Overavg 61.4¢ | $641.1 | $875.09 | +$234 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Overavg 61¢ | $67.23 | $55.11 | -$12.12 | 50% 12125-12330 (24455) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Overavg 45¢ | $12.78 | $13.6 | +$0.82 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
 RN1<$100 | Overavg 60¢ | $9 | $7.5 | -$1.5 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Underavg 53¢ | $3.27 | $3.25 | -$0.02 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 52¢ | $46.73 | $2.63 | +$1.9 | 58% 40784-29493 (70277) |
Invested
$1,099.8
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$316.76
Record
49%
18616-19046 (37662)
Invested
$641.1
Value
$875.09
PnL
+$234
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
Invested
$67.23
Value
$55.11
PnL
-$12.12
Record
50%
12125-12330 (24455)
Invested
$12.78
Value
$13.6
PnL
+$0.82
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
RN1<$100Invested
$9
Value
$7.5
PnL
-$1.5
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$3.27
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$0.02
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$46.73
Value
$2.63
PnL
+$1.9
Record
58%
40784-29493 (70277)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.