Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-10-28?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 70¢ · $24K held · ended Oct 28

Yes31¢No69¢Ended Wed, Oct 28, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

3 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.2K

Combined PnL

-$4.17

Smart Money Entry

69.2¢ → 69.5¢

+0% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$19.7K

Total Shares28,411

Combined PnL+$21.53

Yes2 traders

Total Value$118.44

Total Shares241

Combined PnL-$25.7

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
aibaby	Noavg 71¢	$15.6K	$15.4K	-$109.55	53% 98-88 (186)
oieshfn345ARB<$100	Noavg 61.6¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$337.16	57% 1626-1210 (2836)
└ No leg	Noavg 61.6¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	-$1.79
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 30.9¢	$592.69	$739.55	+$338.95
RN1ARB<$100	Yesavg 34.1¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$116.84	54% 55737-47824 (103561)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 34.1¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$131.39
└ No leg	Noavg 62.5¢	$927.82	$913.27	-$14.56
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 60.4¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$3.42	59% 44632-31032 (75664)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 70.1¢	$1.2K	$1.3K	+$97.31	50% 24379-23989 (48368)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 61¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$8.53	50% 12125-12330 (24455)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 61¢	$334.89	$337.64	+$2.75	50% 32789-32345 (65134)
poshposh	Noavg 61.3¢	$121.2	$140.44	+$19.24	60% 9388-6379 (15767)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 61¢	$151.59	$115.39	-$25.35	58% 40784-29493 (70277)
HRTradingARB<$100	Yesavg 40.7¢	$73.47	$67.73	-$5.74	53% 3080-2737 (5817)
└ No leg	Noavg 62.1¢	$34.21	$38.29	+$4.08
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.7¢	$39.26	$29.43	-$9.83
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 60.2¢	$18.05	$18.15	+$0.1	54% 6048-5126 (11174)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 56¢	$5.6	$5.35	-$0.25	63% 1740-1035 (2775)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$3.4	$3.05	-$0.35	52% 5878-5516 (11394)

aibaby

Invested

$15,556.1

Value

$15.4K

PnL

-$109.55

Record

53%

98-88 (186)

oieshfn345ARB<$100

Invested

$1,825.37

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$337.16

Record

57%

1626-1210 (2836)

Both legs:

No$1,424.7761.6¢-$1.79

Yes$592.6930.9¢+$338.95

RN1ARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$1,935.81

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$116.84

Record

54%

55737-47824 (103561)

Both legs:

Yes$1,007.9834.1¢+$131.39

No$927.8262.5¢-$14.56

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,464.63

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$3.42

Record

59%

44632-31032 (75664)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,187.47

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$97.31

Record

50%

24379-23989 (48368)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,040.05

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$8.53

Record

50%

12125-12330 (24455)

SnakeBall

Invested

$334.89

Value

$337.64

PnL

+$2.75

Record

50%

32789-32345 (65134)

poshposh

Invested

$121.2

Value

$140.44

PnL

+$19.24

Record

60%

9388-6379 (15767)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$151.59

Value

$115.39

PnL

-$25.35

Record

58%

40784-29493 (70277)

HRTradingARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$73.47

Value

$67.73

PnL

-$5.74

Record

53%

3080-2737 (5817)

Both legs:

No$34.2162.1¢+$4.08

Yes$39.2640.7¢-$9.83

Betziko<$100

Invested

$18.05

Value

$18.15

PnL

+$0.1

Record

54%

6048-5126 (11174)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$5.6

Value

$5.35

PnL

-$0.25

Record

63%

1740-1035 (2775)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.4

Value

$3.05

PnL

-$0.35

Record

52%

5878-5516 (11394)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)3 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.