Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-10-28?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 95¢ · $869 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 75%
$868.69
-$8.01
96.5¢ → 95¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 97.1¢ | $697.34 | $682.01 | -$15.33 | 59% 44657-31054 (75711) |
 oieshfn345 | Noavg 93.2¢ | $147.58 | $150.42 | +$8.38 | 57% 1626-1210 (2836) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $28.6 | $27.55 | -$1.05 | 53% 3109-2775 (5884) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $8.72 | $8.72 | +$0 | 58% 40808-29511 (70319) |
Invested
$697.34
Value
$682.01
PnL
-$15.33
Record
59%
44657-31054 (75711)
oieshfn345Invested
$147.58
Value
$150.42
PnL
+$8.38
Record
57%
1626-1210 (2836)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$28.6
Value
$27.55
PnL
-$1.05
Record
53%
3109-2775 (5884)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$8.72
Value
$8.72
PnL
+$0
Record
58%
40808-29511 (70319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.