Will Arsenal WFC win on 2026-10-28?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 85¢ · $12K held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$11.6K
-$82.39
82.2¢ → 84.5¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1 | Yesavg 82¢ | $4.1K | $4.2K | +$75 | 54% 55737-47824 (103561) |
 aibabyCTR | Noavg 17.8¢ | $3.6K | $3.3K | -$257.15 | 53% 98-88 (186) |
UP UpTheBlues | Yesavg 82.4¢ | $2.9K | $3.0K | +$73.15 | 59% 44632-31032 (75664) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Yesavg 82.5¢ | $618.09 | $627.96 | +$9.87 | 50% 24379-23989 (48368) |
 HRTrading | Yesavg 82¢ | $529.4 | $545.79 | +$16.39 | 53% 3080-2737 (5817) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Yesavg 82¢ | $18.86 | $19.21 | +$0.34 | 63% 1075-625 (1700) |
RN1Invested
$4,100
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$75
Record
54%
55737-47824 (103561)
aibabyCTRInvested
$3,562.01
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$257.15
Record
53%
98-88 (186)
Invested
$2,893.22
Value
$3.0K
PnL
+$73.15
Record
59%
44632-31032 (75664)
Invested
$618.09
Value
$627.96
PnL
+$9.87
Record
50%
24379-23989 (48368)
HRTradingInvested
$529.4
Value
$545.79
PnL
+$16.39
Record
53%
3080-2737 (5817)
Invested
$18.86
Value
$19.21
PnL
+$0.34
Record
63%
1075-625 (1700)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.