Will Tampa Bay Rowdies win on 2026-10-30?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 98¢ · $575 held · ended Oct 30

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Fri, Oct 30, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$575.41

Combined PnL

-$42.12

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$94.41

Total Shares149

Combined PnL-$0.64

No6 traders

Total Value$47.42

Total Shares171

Combined PnL-$41.47

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Yesavg 41.7¢	$418.86	$433.58	+$14.72	38% 3323-5440 (8763)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 41.7¢	$308.81	$288.51	-$20.3
└ No leg	Noavg 46.3¢	$110.05	$145.08	+$35.02
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100	Yesavg 63.2¢	$60.7	$71.52	+$10.82	49% 19066-19466 (38532)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 45.7¢	$34.36	$22.89	-$11.46	59% 10038-7001 (17039)
0X 0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100	Noavg 27¢	$13.5	$12.75	-$0.75	47% 4542-5037 (9579)
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100	Noavg 67¢	$28.81	$10.97	-$17.85	53% 3176-2801 (5977)
CC ccllar<$100	Noavg 69¢	$24.15	$8.93	-$15.22	46% 419-486 (905)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Noavg 54¢	$16.2	$7.65	-$8.55	85% 5165-880 (6045)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Noavg 32.1¢	$5.15	$6.11	+$0.96	59% 30410-21120 (51530)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 27¢	$1.08	$1.02	-$0.06	53% 4191-3790 (7981)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$418.86

Value

$433.58

PnL

+$14.72

Record

38%

3323-5440 (8763)

Both legs:

Yes$308.8141.7¢-$20.3

No$110.0546.3¢+$35.02

omnibus-076daaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$60.7

Value

$71.52

PnL

+$10.82

Record

49%

19066-19466 (38532)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.36

Value

$22.89

PnL

-$11.46

Record

59%

10038-7001 (17039)

0x8Cb25E16F2F0893C1bd4d7077325BD4a3b4AdCf5-1774682577191<$100

Invested

$13.5

Value

$12.75

PnL

-$0.75

Record

47%

4542-5037 (9579)

0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100

Invested

$28.81

Value

$10.97

PnL

-$17.85

Record

53%

3176-2801 (5977)

ccllar<$100

Invested

$24.15

Value

$8.93

PnL

-$15.22

Record

46%

419-486 (905)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Invested

$16.2

Value

$7.65

PnL

-$8.55

Record

85%

5165-880 (6045)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$6.11

PnL

+$0.96

Record

59%

30410-21120 (51530)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

53%

4191-3790 (7981)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.0%

98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.96

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.