Will Miami FC win on 2026-10-30?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 99¢ · $691 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$691.14
$5.42
74.9¢ → 98.5¢
+32% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TO topdogbigboi | Noavg 72.8¢ | $397.44 | $375.42 | -$22.02 | 38% 3323-5440 (8763) |
OM omnibus-076daa | Noavg 68.3¢ | $79.24 | $105.06 | +$25.82 | 49% 19066-19466 (38532) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $85.02 | $98.65 | +$13.63 | 53% 3176-2801 (5977) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $51.48 | $52.94 | +$1.46 | 59% 45474-31848 (77322) |
CC ccllar<$100 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $51.61 | $50.84 | -$0.77 | 46% 419-486 (905) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.2¢ | $20.93 | $8.22 | -$12.71 | 59% 10038-7001 (17039) |
Invested
$397.44
Value
$375.42
PnL
-$22.02
Record
38%
3323-5440 (8763)
Invested
$79.24
Value
$105.06
PnL
+$25.82
Record
49%
19066-19466 (38532)
Invested
$85.02
Value
$98.65
PnL
+$13.63
Record
53%
3176-2801 (5977)
Invested
$51.48
Value
$52.94
PnL
+$1.46
Record
59%
45474-31848 (77322)
Invested
$51.61
Value
$50.84
PnL
-$0.77
Record
46%
419-486 (905)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$20.93
Value
$8.22
PnL
-$12.71
Record
59%
10038-7001 (17039)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.