Will Charleston Battery win on 2026-10-30?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 86¢ · $834 held · ended Oct 30
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$833.97
-$114.58
63¢ → 85.5¢
+36% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 86%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 56.7¢ | $484.95 | $465.98 | -$18.97 | 59% 45431-31798 (77229) |
0X 0x746295855BE6F49fE2DA2AcCD69eA34b3Cf23Ac3-1762436472554 | Noavg 80.3¢ | $186.56 | $184.65 | -$1.91 | 53% 3172-2798 (5970) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR | Yesavg 23.5¢ | $178.63 | $91.33 | -$87.3 | 38% 3268-5352 (8620) |
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100 | Noavg 77.6¢ | $34 | $32.65 | -$1.35 | 59% 30405-21110 (51515) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $31.07 | $30.25 | -$0.81 | 59% 10007-6969 (16976) |
 ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $20.7 | $16.35 | -$4.35 | 85% 5136-873 (6009) |
CC ccllar<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $12.65 | $12.77 | +$0.12 | 46% 416-486 (902) |
Invested
$484.95
Value
$465.98
PnL
-$18.97
Record
59%
45431-31798 (77229)
Invested
$186.56
Value
$184.65
PnL
-$1.91
Record
53%
3172-2798 (5970)
Invested
$178.63
Value
$91.33
PnL
-$87.3
Record
38%
3268-5352 (8620)
Invested
$34
Value
$32.65
PnL
-$1.35
Record
59%
30405-21110 (51515)
poshposh<$100Invested
$31.07
Value
$30.25
PnL
-$0.81
Record
59%
10007-6969 (16976)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100Invested
$20.7
Value
$16.35
PnL
-$4.35
Record
85%
5136-873 (6009)
Invested
$12.65
Value
$12.77
PnL
+$0.12
Record
46%
416-486 (902)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.