US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 30, 2026?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 57¢ · $24K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
1 arb excluded
$23.7K
$495.29
56.9¢ → 57¢
+0% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
-2 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Mature
20h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 paddaa | Noavg 57¢ | $14.5K | $11.3K | +$306.69 | 57% 866-665 (1531) |
 classified | Noavg 55.9¢ | $3.3K | $3.5K | +$217.54 | 57% 857-647 (1504) |
AN anoin123CTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $3.3K | $3.3K | -$118.87 | 45% 529-652 (1181) |
 BigMackyGCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$0 | 20% 115-474 (589) |
RA rainbowlilies | Noavg 56.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$55.15 | 39% 2900-4501 (7401) |
MO Monopoly_Money | Noavg 59¢ | $1.2K | $1.2K | +$10 | 63% 166-96 (262) |
 HaradwaithARB<$100 | Noavg 57.2¢ | $3.0K | $907.3 | +$3.84 | 40% 6449-9526 (15975) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.2¢ | $630.02 | $655.69 | +$25.58 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 44¢ | $273.35 | $251.61 | -$21.74 | |
 KimJonEnCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $410 | $420 | -$5 | 75% 951-313 (1264) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $802 | $257.5 | -$4 | 73% 3011-1098 (4109) |
 Lolakis | Noavg 54.6¢ | $674.79 | $120.57 | +$28.74 | 58% 713-515 (1228) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $96.54 | $57.44 | +$5.31 | 77% 12627-3871 (16498) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $36.39 | $19.87 | -$0.27 | 58% 21129-15368 (36497) |
paddaaInvested
$14,518.82
Value
$11.3K
PnL
+$306.69
Record
57%
866-665 (1531)
classifiedInvested
$3,311.43
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$217.54
Record
57%
857-647 (1504)
Invested
$3,328.49
Value
$3.3K
PnL
-$118.87
Record
45%
529-652 (1181)
BigMackyGCTRInvested
$1,433.35
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$0
Record
20%
115-474 (589)
Invested
$1,138.42
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$55.15
Record
39%
2900-4501 (7401)
Invested
$1,180
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$10
Record
63%
166-96 (262)
HaradwaithARB<$100Invested
$3,032.58
Value
$907.3
PnL
+$3.84
Record
40%
6449-9526 (15975)
Both legs:
KimJonEnCTRInvested
$410
Value
$420
PnL
-$5
Record
75%
951-313 (1264)
Tenebrus7Invested
$802
Value
$257.5
PnL
-$4
Record
73%
3011-1098 (4109)
LolakisInvested
$674.79
Value
$120.57
PnL
+$28.74
Record
58%
713-515 (1228)
Invested
$96.54
Value
$57.44
PnL
+$5.31
Record
77%
12627-3871 (16498)
Invested
$36.39
Value
$19.87
PnL
-$0.27
Record
58%
21129-15368 (36497)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.