US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Jan 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

$72.1

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 96.2¢

+5% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,601

Combined PnL+$138.7

Yes4 traders

Total Value$70.78

Total Shares1,913

Combined PnL-$66.6

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

999h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Anjun	Noavg 92.1¢	$897.51	$943.21	+$45.7	55% 5006-4068 (9074)
DEGENKHAN	Noavg 92.4¢	$2.0K	$905.77	+$53.36	66% 1109-565 (1674)
PaddyAlpha	Noavg 87.6¢	$466.8	$499.57	+$32.77	59% 994-697 (1691)
EL Elias.Thornwell	Noavg 92.6¢	$135.84	$139.34	+$6.87	77% 11963-3647 (15610)
HE HerrieDavisCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.3¢	$68.96	$35.39	-$33.57	36% 2155-3860 (6015)
0X 0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100	Yes	$31.35	$31.35	-$27.62	48% 102-110 (212)
PU purplegattoCTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$7.92	$3.66	-$4.9	50% 6072-6173 (12245)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.7¢	$0.88	$0.38	-$0.51	73% 2888-1068 (3956)

Anjun

Invested

$897.51

Value

$943.21

PnL

+$45.7

Record

55%

5006-4068 (9074)

DEGENKHAN

Invested

$1,975.2

Value

$905.77

PnL

+$53.36

Record

66%

1109-565 (1674)

PaddyAlpha

Invested

$466.8

Value

$499.57

PnL

+$32.77

Record

59%

994-697 (1691)

Elias.Thornwell

Invested

$135.84

Value

$139.34

PnL

+$6.87

Record

77%

11963-3647 (15610)

HerrieDavisCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$68.96

Value

$35.39

PnL

-$33.57

Record

36%

2155-3860 (6015)

0x8f6970acd7c9466fc1d09a7c17071705c8e52923-1792437064758CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.35

Value

$31.35

PnL

-$27.62

Record

48%

102-110 (212)

purplegattoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.92

Value

$3.66

PnL

-$4.9

Record

50%

6072-6173 (12245)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.88

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$0.51

Record

73%

2888-1068 (3956)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Late

999h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (6 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleNo 50% · 4

Aligned

sharpNo 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 67% · 6

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.