Will there be between 60 and 89 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?

8 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 99¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 11

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$1.2K

Combined PnL

$17.64

Smart Money Entry

76.8¢ → 99.5¢

+29% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares1,180

Combined PnL+$17.5

Yes2 traders

Total Value$0.44

Total Shares80

Combined PnL+$0.14

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Istaroth	Noavg 84.2¢	$537.56	$510.06	-$17.35	14% 503-3033 (3536)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 64.3¢	$422.16	$332.41	-$18.41	35% 18692-34699 (53391)
CI cigarettes	Noavg 82.9¢	$82.88	$119.34	+$18.62	53% 23002-20232 (43234)
KO korda77<$100	Noavg 79¢	$79	$99.45	+$20.45	44% 6563-8231 (14794)
VA Vale54holi<$100	Noavg 63¢	$34.65	$54.7	+$20.05	33% 320-641 (961)
2B9S<$100	Noavg 73.5¢	$49.06	$40.96	-$8.09	18% 4414-20716 (25130)
ZE zerone777<$100	Noavg 90¢	$18	$19.89	+$1.89	39% 562-865 (1427)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.62	$4.97	+$0.35	53% 8400-7487 (15887)
DO donthackmeCTR<$100	Yes	$0.22	$0.22	+$0	73% 12946-4868 (17814)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.08	$0.22	+$0.14	27% 6972-19073 (26045)

Istaroth

Invested

$537.56

Value

$510.06

PnL

-$17.35

Record

14%

503-3033 (3536)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$422.16

Value

$332.41

PnL

-$18.41

Record

35%

18692-34699 (53391)

cigarettes

Invested

$82.88

Value

$119.34

PnL

+$18.62

Record

53%

23002-20232 (43234)

korda77<$100

Invested

$79

Value

$99.45

PnL

+$20.45

Record

44%

6563-8231 (14794)

Vale54holi<$100

Invested

$34.65

Value

$54.7

PnL

+$20.05

Record

33%

320-641 (961)

2B9S<$100

Invested

$49.06

Value

$40.96

PnL

-$8.09

Record

18%

4414-20716 (25130)

zerone777<$100

Invested

$18

Value

$19.89

PnL

+$1.89

Record

39%

562-865 (1427)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$4.62

Value

$4.97

PnL

+$0.35

Record

53%

8400-7487 (15887)

donthackmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.22

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0

Record

73%

12946-4868 (17814)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.08

Value

$0.22

PnL

+$0.14

Record

27%

6972-19073 (26045)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 10 top traders (80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 71%

Freshness

Mature

19h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 71% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 60% · 5

Aligned

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 75% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.