Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 97¢ · $193 held · ends Nov 11
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$193.21
-$2.13
73.3¢ → 96.8¢
+32% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Yesavg 66.5¢ | $131.34 | $108.78 | -$17.36 | 17% 4496-22008 (26504) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 90.2¢ | $39.61 | $42.47 | +$2.86 | 26% 7307-21087 (28394) |
DO donthackme<$100 | Yes | $38.7 | $38.7 | +$30.12 | 68% 13194-6212 (19406) |
12 123987456CTR<$100 | Noavg 21¢ | $21 | $3.25 | -$17.75 | 42% 2335-3178 (5513) |
2B9SInvested
$131.34
Value
$108.78
PnL
-$17.36
Record
17%
4496-22008 (26504)
Invested
$39.61
Value
$42.47
PnL
+$2.86
Record
26%
7307-21087 (28394)
Invested
$38.7
Value
$38.7
PnL
+$30.12
Record
68%
13194-6212 (19406)
Invested
$21
Value
$3.25
PnL
-$17.75
Record
42%
2335-3178 (5513)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.