Will the Democrats fail to sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire hold through 2027?

12 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (92%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Sat, Jan 1, 2028View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 92%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$369.86

Smart Money Entry

80.1¢ → 99.5¢

+24% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares2,045

Combined PnL+$368.61

Yes1 trader

Total Value$2.15

Total Shares226

Combined PnL+$1.24

No — 92%Yes — 8%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys	Noavg 98.3¢	$1.1K	$907.36	+$5.24	79% 11970-3164 (15134)
E4 e46m3	Noavg 22.4¢	$110.17	$466.01	+$366.78	73% 13459-5011 (18470)
GR graynotebook19	Noavg 99¢	$253.96	$224.38	-$0.06	62% 14557-9101 (23658)
QU quietparcel	Noavg 97.6¢	$200.39	$143.89	+$1.13	50% 9499-9511 (19010)
ME MenacingTurtle<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$77.16	$78.7	+$1.54	56% 266-208 (474)
balthazar<$100	No	$77.84	$77.84	+$0	53% 28648-25583 (54231)
CI cigarettes<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$38.92	$38.88	-$0.04	54% 22041-19146 (41187)
Istaroth	Noavg 98.1¢	$310.78	$25.5	-$4.77	15% 430-2354 (2784)
ME merod<$100	Noavg 97.1¢	$25.25	$25.27	+$0.03	42% 2910-4011 (6921)
PI PiEDawg	Noavg 97.8¢	$213.56	$22.22	+$0.11	48% 1662-1796 (3458)
12 123987456<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$9.85	$9.87	+$0.02	43% 2145-2794 (4939)
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100	Noavg 98.2¢	$9.82	$8.44	-$1.38	72% 24771-9862 (34633)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.9	$2.15	+$1.24	20% 2494-9935 (12429)

Lucerys

Invested

$1,062.9

Value

$907.36

PnL

+$5.24

Record

79%

11970-3164 (15134)

e46m3

Invested

$110.17

Value

$466.01

PnL

+$366.78

Record

73%

13459-5011 (18470)

graynotebook19

Invested

$253.96

Value

$224.38

PnL

-$0.06

Record

62%

14557-9101 (23658)

quietparcel

Invested

$200.39

Value

$143.89

PnL

+$1.13

Record

50%

9499-9511 (19010)

MenacingTurtle<$100

Invested

$77.16

Value

$78.7

PnL

+$1.54

Record

56%

266-208 (474)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$77.84

Value

$77.84

PnL

+$0

Record

53%

28648-25583 (54231)

cigarettes<$100

Invested

$38.92

Value

$38.88

PnL

-$0.04

Record

54%

22041-19146 (41187)

Istaroth

Invested

$310.78

Value

$25.5

PnL

-$4.77

Record

15%

430-2354 (2784)

merod<$100

Invested

$25.25

Value

$25.27

PnL

+$0.03

Record

42%

2910-4011 (6921)

PiEDawg

Invested

$213.56

Value

$22.22

PnL

+$0.11

Record

48%

1662-1796 (3458)

123987456<$100

Invested

$9.85

Value

$9.87

PnL

+$0.02

Record

43%

2145-2794 (4939)

0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100

Invested

$9.82

Value

$8.44

PnL

-$1.38

Record

72%

24771-9862 (34633)

LornaPredictsCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.9

Value

$2.15

PnL

+$1.24

Record

20%

2494-9935 (12429)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

12 of 13 top traders (92%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.