Will the Democrats sweep the House and Senate and the US-Iran ceasefire not hold through 2027?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 70¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 33%
1 arb excluded
$1.1K
$16.15
59.1¢ → 70¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 BloodyMummer | Yesavg 59.8¢ | $675.12 | $694.22 | +$19.09 | 77% 557-167 (724) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Yesavg 61.7¢ | $108.88 | $100.01 | -$2.41 | 16% 416-2177 (2593) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 61.7¢ | $61.73 | $69.96 | +$8.24 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 40.7¢ | $40.7 | $30.05 | -$10.65 | |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.7¢ | $95.68 | $92.7 | -$2.99 | 79% 10892-2961 (13853) |
 bernardbulletin<$100 | Yesavg 53.9¢ | $81.53 | $91.42 | +$6.71 | 69% 1012-451 (1463) |
LP lpgbCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.3¢ | $68.11 | $65.07 | -$3.04 | 25% 290-890 (1180) |
WA WarriorHCTR<$100 | Noavg 40.2¢ | $50.65 | $46.51 | -$2.14 | 17% 1052-5071 (6123) |
NO northdrawerCTR<$100 | Noavg 39.9¢ | $41.91 | $40.43 | -$1.48 | 61% 14060-8913 (22973) |
BloodyMummerInvested
$675.12
Value
$694.22
PnL
+$19.09
Record
77%
557-167 (724)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$108.88
Value
$100.01
PnL
-$2.41
Record
16%
416-2177 (2593)
Both legs:
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$95.68
Value
$92.7
PnL
-$2.99
Record
79%
10892-2961 (13853)
bernardbulletin<$100Invested
$81.53
Value
$91.42
PnL
+$6.71
Record
69%
1012-451 (1463)
Invested
$68.11
Value
$65.07
PnL
-$3.04
Record
25%
290-890 (1180)
Invested
$50.65
Value
$46.51
PnL
-$2.14
Record
17%
1052-5071 (6123)
Invested
$41.91
Value
$40.43
PnL
-$1.48
Record
61%
14060-8913 (22973)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
70.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.