US imports Russian diesel by November 2?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 94¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.6K
$158.54
89¢ → 94¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
86h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0b | Noavg 88.5¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$131.94 | 72% 71-28 (99) |
AR Arman2CTR | Yesavg 5.4¢ | $161.08 | $180.54 | +$19.46 | 58% 328-241 (569) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 97¢ | $106.7 | $105.6 | +$0.39 | 75% 1027-338 (1365) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $48 | $48 | +$0 | 56% 1210-965 (2175) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 94.2¢ | $63.9 | $13.06 | +$0.74 | 56% 14204-11005 (25209) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1¢ | $1.23 | $7.24 | +$6.01 | 47% 2036-2275 (4311) |
0x56e777a0ac58b25be414f8f29866e99ad5737c0bInvested
$2,081.66
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$131.94
Record
72%
71-28 (99)
Invested
$161.08
Value
$180.54
PnL
+$19.46
Record
58%
328-241 (569)
Invested
$106.7
Value
$105.6
PnL
+$0.39
Record
75%
1027-338 (1365)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$48
Value
$48
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
1210-965 (2175)
Invested
$63.9
Value
$13.06
PnL
+$0.74
Record
56%
14204-11005 (25209)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.23
Value
$7.24
PnL
+$6.01
Record
47%
2036-2275 (4311)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.