US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 2, 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 94¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$1.0K
$6.55
94.1¢ → 94¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NO nonkenny90 | Noavg 94.8¢ | $872 | $869.4 | -$2.6 | 89% 4588-544 (5132) |
JE Jest55 | Noavg 90¢ | $135 | $129.75 | -$5.25 | 75% 1015-336 (1351) |
 betwickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $13.75 | $16.5 | +$2.75 | 55% 350-284 (634) |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $4.4 | $14.85 | +$10.45 | 40% 700-1048 (1748) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $0.71 | $1.91 | +$1.2 | 57% 13182-10034 (23216) |
Invested
$872
Value
$869.4
PnL
-$2.6
Record
89%
4588-544 (5132)
Invested
$135
Value
$129.75
PnL
-$5.25
Record
75%
1015-336 (1351)
betwickCTR<$100Invested
$13.75
Value
$16.5
PnL
+$2.75
Record
55%
350-284 (634)
BigRabbitCTR<$100Invested
$4.4
Value
$14.85
PnL
+$10.45
Record
40%
700-1048 (1748)
Invested
$0.71
Value
$1.91
PnL
+$1.2
Record
57%
13182-10034 (23216)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.