Will CA Penarol Montevideo win on 2026-10-31?
7 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (88%) · No at 98¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 88%
$2.2K
$422.66
61.9¢ → 97.8¢
+58% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 8 top traders (88%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 92.1¢ | $1.1K | $1.2K | +$53.97 | 59% 45969-32302 (78271) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 36.2¢ | $344.28 | $748.66 | +$404.38 | 50% 25208-24935 (50143) |
0X 0xfB07F48542d2b655e9D0Bf1cC92a8a6Feee8e2cC-1782415802542 | Noavg 35¢ | $182.03 | $174.23 | -$7.8 | 47% 2521-2820 (5341) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 35.4¢ | $49.6 | $46.9 | -$2.7 | 58% 28788-21225 (50013) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 70.3¢ | $41.52 | $16.22 | -$25.31 | 49% 8081-8480 (16561) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $9.88 | $10.71 | +$0.82 | 59% 10257-7240 (17497) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 36¢ | $10.8 | $10.05 | -$0.75 | 58% 42027-30514 (72541) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 94¢ | $1.41 | $1.46 | +$0.05 | 53% 4792-4312 (9104) |
Invested
$1,119.18
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$53.97
Record
59%
45969-32302 (78271)
Invested
$344.28
Value
$748.66
PnL
+$404.38
Record
50%
25208-24935 (50143)
Invested
$182.03
Value
$174.23
PnL
-$7.8
Record
47%
2521-2820 (5341)
Invested
$49.6
Value
$46.9
PnL
-$2.7
Record
58%
28788-21225 (50013)
Invested
$41.52
Value
$16.22
PnL
-$25.31
Record
49%
8081-8480 (16561)
poshposh<$100Invested
$9.88
Value
$10.71
PnL
+$0.82
Record
59%
10257-7240 (17497)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$10.8
Value
$10.05
PnL
-$0.75
Record
58%
42027-30514 (72541)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$1.41
Value
$1.46
PnL
+$0.05
Record
53%
4792-4312 (9104)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.