Will Discord’s market cap be less than $5B at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 99¢ · $919 held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$918.77
-$7.25
99.8¢ → 99.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
QW qwen300.fund | Noavg 99.8¢ | $556.07 | $554.2 | -$1.87 | 28% 2422-6146 (8568) |
CI cigarettes | Noavg 99.7¢ | $239.22 | $235.44 | -$3.78 | 52% 5296-4806 (10102) |
QU quietparcel<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $59.82 | $58.86 | -$0.96 | 10% 25-236 (261) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.43 | -$0.48 | 4% 14-366 (380) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.7¢ | $29.91 | $29.43 | -$0.48 | 39% 1397-2152 (3549) |
BI Bigggggggg<$100 | Noavg 99.8¢ | $10.98 | $10.9 | -$0.08 | 53% 1595-1413 (3008) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.11 | $0.52 | +$0.41 | 16% 10-52 (62) |
Invested
$556.07
Value
$554.2
PnL
-$1.87
Record
28%
2422-6146 (8568)
Invested
$239.22
Value
$235.44
PnL
-$3.78
Record
52%
5296-4806 (10102)
Invested
$59.82
Value
$58.86
PnL
-$0.96
Record
10%
25-236 (261)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.43
PnL
-$0.48
Record
4%
14-366 (380)
Invested
$29.91
Value
$29.43
PnL
-$0.48
Record
39%
1397-2152 (3549)
Invested
$10.98
Value
$10.9
PnL
-$0.08
Record
53%
1595-1413 (3008)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$0.11
Value
$0.52
PnL
+$0.41
Record
16%
10-52 (62)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.