Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 4 Belgium?
3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (38%) · No at 93¢ · $920 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 38%
$920.45
-$31.44
96.7¢ → 93¢
-4% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-5 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
38% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 96.6¢ | $865.9 | $833.1 | -$32.8 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 97.8¢ | $46.03 | $45.95 | -$0.08 | 54% 994-856 (1850) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 98.1¢ | $19.11 | $19.02 | -$0.09 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $13.19 | $11.56 | -$1.63 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $1.49 | $4.41 | +$2.92 | 44% 165-210 (375) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $2.28 | $2.35 | +$0.07 | 33% 553-1135 (1688) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.2¢ | $1.98 | $2.1 | +$0.12 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.3¢ | $1.9 | $1.96 | +$0.06 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
Invested
$865.9
Value
$833.1
PnL
-$32.8
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$46.03
Value
$45.95
PnL
-$0.08
Record
54%
994-856 (1850)
Invested
$19.11
Value
$19.02
PnL
-$0.09
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$13.19
Value
$11.56
PnL
-$1.63
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$4.41
PnL
+$2.92
Record
44%
165-210 (375)
Invested
$2.28
Value
$2.35
PnL
+$0.07
Record
33%
553-1135 (1688)
Invested
$1.98
Value
$2.1
PnL
+$0.12
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
Invested
$1.9
Value
$1.96
PnL
+$0.06
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.