Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 3 Belgium?
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 96¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 78%
$2.8K
-$9.84
95.4¢ → 95.9¢
+0% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 95.3¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$4.56 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
MA MadridTime | Noavg 95.9¢ | $673.44 | $673.36 | -$0.08 | 33% 558-1109 (1667) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 95.2¢ | $394.75 | $397.32 | +$2.57 | 59% 3534-2417 (5951) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 95.2¢ | $322.99 | $325.24 | +$2.26 | 26% 152-428 (580) |
SU suntoriCTR | Yesavg 4.7¢ | $191.2 | $167.89 | -$23.31 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 95.2¢ | $107.68 | $108.25 | +$0.58 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 95.5¢ | $219.11 | $45.2 | +$3.86 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 95.9¢ | $10.67 | $10.17 | -$0.09 | 33% 553-1132 (1685) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.5¢ | $4.14 | $3.96 | -$0.18 | 32% 538-1125 (1663) |
Invested
$1,052.45
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$4.56
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$673.44
Value
$673.36
PnL
-$0.08
Record
33%
558-1109 (1667)
Invested
$394.75
Value
$397.32
PnL
+$2.57
Record
59%
3534-2417 (5951)
Invested
$322.99
Value
$325.24
PnL
+$2.26
Record
26%
152-428 (580)
Invested
$191.2
Value
$167.89
PnL
-$23.31
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
Invested
$107.68
Value
$108.25
PnL
+$0.58
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
Invested
$219.11
Value
$45.2
PnL
+$3.86
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$10.67
Value
$10.17
PnL
-$0.09
Record
33%
553-1132 (1685)
Invested
$4.14
Value
$3.96
PnL
-$0.18
Record
32%
538-1125 (1663)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.