Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 2 Belgium?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 94¢ · $675 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$675.37
$9.62
92.9¢ → 93.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
5h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NM NM-P | Noavg 93¢ | $325.5 | $325.5 | +$0 | 59% 3534-2417 (5951) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 93¢ | $205.58 | $205.58 | +$0 | 26% 152-428 (580) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $53.28 | $53.28 | +$0 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $46 | $46.5 | +$0.5 | 40% 77-117 (194) |
38 38791873984189 | Noavg 92.7¢ | $186.24 | $18.95 | +$9.45 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $13.95 | $13.95 | +$0 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $12.27 | $11.4 | -$0.88 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $53.88 | $0.22 | +$0.54 | 53% 933-821 (1754) |
Invested
$325.5
Value
$325.5
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3534-2417 (5951)
Invested
$205.58
Value
$205.58
PnL
+$0
Record
26%
152-428 (580)
Invested
$53.28
Value
$53.28
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$46
Value
$46.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
40%
77-117 (194)
Invested
$186.24
Value
$18.95
PnL
+$9.45
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$13.95
Value
$13.95
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$12.27
Value
$11.4
PnL
-$0.88
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
Invested
$53.88
Value
$0.22
PnL
+$0.54
Record
53%
933-821 (1754)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.