Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Belgium?
4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 93¢ · $763 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 50%
$763.1
$12.64
92.9¢ → 92.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 93¢ | $602.81 | $602.81 | +$0 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $66.38 | $63.93 | +$8.54 | 48% 2191-2368 (4559) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $31 | $32.58 | +$1.58 | 40% 77-117 (194) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $24.76 | $26.53 | +$1.77 | 36% 209-368 (577) |
NM NM-P<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $26 | $26.34 | +$0.34 | 59% 3534-2417 (5951) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $4.9 | $4.9 | +$0 | 33% 534-1108 (1642) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $4.14 | $4.44 | +$0.3 | 26% 152-428 (580) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $1.47 | $1.58 | +$0.1 | 47% 1583-1774 (3357) |
Invested
$602.81
Value
$602.81
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$66.38
Value
$63.93
PnL
+$8.54
Record
48%
2191-2368 (4559)
Invested
$31
Value
$32.58
PnL
+$1.58
Record
40%
77-117 (194)
Invested
$24.76
Value
$26.53
PnL
+$1.77
Record
36%
209-368 (577)
Invested
$26
Value
$26.34
PnL
+$0.34
Record
59%
3534-2417 (5951)
Invested
$4.9
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0
Record
33%
534-1108 (1642)
Invested
$4.14
Value
$4.44
PnL
+$0.3
Record
26%
152-428 (580)
Invested
$1.47
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$0.1
Record
47%
1583-1774 (3357)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.