Türkiye vs. Belgium: O/U 9.5 Total Corners

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 53¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Over48¢Under52¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$17.62

Smart Money Entry

51.8¢ → 52.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over48%

Under53%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,299

Combined PnL+$12.97

Over4 traders

Total Value$118.81

Total Shares245

Combined PnL+$4.65

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
P1 P1kaso	Underavg 51.9¢	$779	$787.5	+$8.5	1% 1-107 (108)
VeryLucky888	Underavg 51¢	$255.75	$263.33	+$7.58	52% 761-712 (1473)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 46.8¢	$92.27	$95.77	+$3.5	33% 534-1108 (1642)
0X 0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186<$100	Underavg 53¢	$84.85	$81.64	-$3.2	— 4-2 (6)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 52.4¢	$73.08	$73.18	+$0.09	52% 185-171 (356)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.72	+$0.52	33% 553-1132 (1685)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$9.2	$9.72	+$0.52	33% 558-1109 (1667)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Overavg 46¢	$3.49	$3.6	+$0.11	15% 29-166 (195)

P1kaso

Under

Invested

$779

Value

$787.5

PnL

+$8.5

Record

1-107 (108)

VeryLucky888

Under

Invested

$255.75

Value

$263.33

PnL

+$7.58

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.27

Value

$95.77

PnL

+$3.5

Record

33%

534-1108 (1642)

0x3822028fC1c17B00DD2f84846F91c14B996CBFe6-1778488989186<$100

Under

Invested

$84.85

Value

$81.64

PnL

-$3.2

Record

—

4-2 (6)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$73.08

Value

$73.18

PnL

+$0.09

Record

52%

185-171 (356)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.72

PnL

+$0.52

Record

33%

553-1132 (1685)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$9.2

Value

$9.72

PnL

+$0.52

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.49

Value

$3.6

PnL

+$0.11

Record

15%

29-166 (195)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 53%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 8 top traders (50%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-21 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Under) and the top 1000 (7 on Over) disagree here.

ctrOver 57% · 7

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 57% · 7

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance54.7%

52.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$82.67

Max Loss

-$100.00

182.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.