Slovakia vs. Faroe Islands: O/U 2.5

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (36%) · Over at 54¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 13

Over54¢Under46¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 36%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.1K

Combined PnL

$95.43

Smart Money Entry

50.6¢ → 53.5¢

+6% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over54%

Under47%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over5 traders

Total Value$3.5K

Total Shares6,533

Combined PnL+$219.86

Under9 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares4,047

Combined PnL-$124.43

Over — 36%Under — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$2.7K	$2.6K	-$40.35	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.5¢	$1.7K	$1.6K	-$119.29
└ Over leg	Overavg 49.9¢	$964.75	$1.0K	+$78.94
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 50¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$181.46	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
RA rabbitfoot1	Overavg 52¢	$910.57	$946.36	+$35.79	2% 9-382 (391)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Underavg 49¢	$564.26	$529.71	-$34.55	36% 326-587 (913)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 49.6¢	$467.32	$438.03	-$29.29	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 49.9¢	$435.55	$405.91	-$29.64	33% 251-499 (750)
0xheavy888CTR	Underavg 48¢	$192	$184	-$8	53% 388-339 (727)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 49¢	$112.85	$105.89	-$6.96	35% 735-1379 (2114)
VE VenusianCTR	Underavg 50¢	$114	$104.88	-$9.12	34% 735-1404 (2139)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 53.7¢	$88.56	$88.24	-$0.32	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Underavg 49¢	$63.35	$63.92	+$0.57	56% 307-245 (552)
└ Over leg	Overavg 50¢	$31.5	$34.02	+$2.52
└ Under leg	Underavg 49¢	$31.85	$29.9	-$1.95
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$45.16	$42.4	-$2.76	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LI LightParadox<$100	Overavg 50¢	$31.11	$33.59	+$2.49	35% 749-1385 (2134)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$33.81	$31.74	-$2.07	47% 189-212 (401)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 49.5¢	$31.31	$29.27	-$2.05	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 50¢	$294.28	$11.74	+$0.46	48% 2786-3040 (5826)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,661.06

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$40.35

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Both legs:

Under$1,696.3149.5¢-$119.29

Over$964.7549.9¢+$78.94

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$2,268.2

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$181.46

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

rabbitfoot1

Over

Invested

$910.57

Value

$946.36

PnL

+$35.79

Record

9-382 (391)

LuckyLooCTR

Under

Invested

$564.26

Value

$529.71

PnL

-$34.55

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$467.32

Value

$438.03

PnL

-$29.29

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$435.55

Value

$405.91

PnL

-$29.64

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

0xheavy888CTR

Under

Invested

$192

Value

$184

PnL

-$8

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$112.85

Value

$105.89

PnL

-$6.96

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

VenusianCTR

Under

Invested

$114

Value

$104.88

PnL

-$9.12

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$88.56

Value

$88.24

PnL

-$0.32

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Under

Invested

$63.35

Value

$63.92

PnL

+$0.57

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

Both legs:

Invested

$45.16

Value

$42.4

PnL

-$2.76

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LightParadox<$100

Over

Invested

$31.11

Value

$33.59

PnL

+$2.49

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.81

Value

$31.74

PnL

-$2.07

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$31.31

Value

$29.27

PnL

-$2.05

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$294.28

Value

$11.74

PnL

+$0.46

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 54%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Over

5 of 14 top traders (36%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed9 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

2 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 60% · 10

Diverging

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance55.7%

53.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$79.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

179.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.